One of the biggest mysteries currently facing central banks around the world is why inflation has failed to pick up more forcefully after years of extraordinary monetary stimulus. Many explanations have been put forward, including discussions on the appropriate measure of economic slack, the role of inflation expectations and the effects of globalisation and digitalisation. One aspect that has received much less attention in the public discussion, however, relates to the impact of the structural transformation of our economies on inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission. There are many dimensions to this transformation to which central banks should remain alert, including the impact of ageing and, looking forward, climate change. Across advanced economies, secular forces have shifted economic activity, employment and consumption expenditure away from manufactured goods and towards services. In my remarks this evening, I will argue that these secular forces are likely to have played, and continue to play, a non-negligible role in explaining the sluggish response of inflation to economic activity and monetary policy in recent years.
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